About the project
Although the solar forcing cannot account for the observed recent global warming, there is evidence that solar variability influences climate both globally and regionally.
SOLENA will address the solar forcing on climate arising from both radiance and particle flux variations. The effects of solar radiance and particle forcings will be examined first separately and then jointly, using a common state-of-the-art modelling framework. SOLENA will rely on performing simulations with a chemistry-climate model with a high-top middle atmosphere component and interactive chemistry, coupled to the ocean. The model will be the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) in a version coupled to the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Through running time-slice natural variability or else transient historical simulations, the project will examine how the 11-year solar cycle and its attendant radiance and particle variations could affect the interannual-to-decadal variability of the North Atlantic and Arctic circulation patterns, as well as of other teleconnections with the tropical and Pacific regions. A special focus is the atmosphere-ocean interactions.
Analysis of existing centennial-to-millennial simulations, as well as dedicated decadal-scale sensitivity experiments, will examine if variations in solar radiative forcing, especially those associated with solar grand minima, could affect the variability of these patterns through similar processes. The implications for the interannual-to-decadal predictability of these North Atlantic and Arctic circulation patterns will be examined.
The multi-disciplinary project will bring together expertise in atmospheric dynamics, oceanography, climate modelling as well as middle atmosphere and solar-terrestrial physics.